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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|