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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.